China's rise has been met with a persistent chorus of "China threat" narratives and claims that national strength inevitably leads to dominance. But is this an immutable historical law? Is hegemony the only path for China? Can humanity escape the shadow of imperialism and achieve peaceful coexistence?
For five centuries, the West's historical narrative has been one of power inevitably leading to dominance. However, this is not a universal truth. China's peaceful rise offers a different model—a path to modernization that is strong yet eschews hegemony. Strength, in this view, is not about aggression, but about peaceful development. The choice of "strength without hegemony" is not a tactical maneuver, but a conclusion rooted in China's theoretical, historical, cultural, and practical realities.
While the world remains mired in hegemonic power dynamics, the dawn of a new era is breaking. China's ascent is a significant factor in dismantling the existing order and building a new, multipolar world. The 21st century will likely see the end of the US and European-dominated international system, paving the way for a future free from hegemony.
The assertion that strong nations inevitably dominate posits a universal historical law: great powers inevitably clash, and national strength invariably translates to hegemony. Modern Western history seemingly validates this: the 16th-century Spanish and Portuguese maritime empires, the 17th-century Dutch ascendancy, the 18th- and 19th-century Anglo-French rivalry (culminating in Britain's vast empire), the failed bids for global hegemony by Germany and Japan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the mid-20th-century US-Soviet Cold War, and the early 21st-century American unipolar moment all appear to confirm this pattern.
This seemingly inescapable historical destiny, however, reflects the specific dynamics of Western history. The Chinese civilization, on the other hand, exhibits a very different dynamic. For much of its history, China held a position as one of the world's largest economies, a status reflected in its substantial GDP. Around 1600, China's share of global GDP reached a peak of approximately 34.6%. By comparison, the US accounted for 31.3% of global GDP in 2001, at the height of its ‘unipolar moment’.
This dominance continued into the Qing Dynasty (1644-1912), where China was among the world's largest economies, its vast population a key driver of its economic strength. Earlier periods, such as the Song Dynasty (960-1279), witnessed significant economic innovations like paper money, fostering trade and a thriving merchant class that contributed to high per-capita GDP. The Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) further solidified China's economic standing through expanded trade networks and agricultural advancements, laying the groundwork for its later economic prominence.
Matching its economic dominance is the awe-inspiring military might. Ancient China's military prowess rested on a foundation of innovative weaponry, sophisticated tactics, and highly organized armies. The crossbow, particularly prominent during the Warring States period (475-221 BCE) and refined throughout the Han Dynasty (206 BCE-220 CE), offered superior range and power compared to conventional bows, proving highly effective against nomadic tribes. This technological advancement was further revolutionized by the invention of gunpowder during the Tang Dynasty (618-907 CE). By the Song Dynasty (960-1279 CE), gunpowder was employed in diverse forms—bombs, rockets, and cannons—as documented in the influential military manual, Wujing Zongyao (1044 CE). This technological leap significantly enhanced siege warfare capabilities and contributed to China's resilience against invasions. Furthermore, Chinese military engineers developed advanced siege weaponry and tactics, including powerful catapults launching incendiary devices, crucial in conflicts with neighboring powers, such as the prolonged resistance against Mongol incursions during the Song Dynasty.
The effectiveness of China's military technology was amplified by its organizational strength. Ancient Chinese armies were remarkably large, numbering in the tens of thousands early on and reaching hundreds of thousands in later dynasties. This scale, coupled with a centralized command structure, allowed for effective mobilization and coordination of vast forces across extensive campaigns and for robust territorial defense. The strategic integration of cavalry, initially influenced by northern nomadic groups but later fully incorporated into Chinese military strategy during the Han period, provided crucial mobility and battlefield flexibility, complementing infantry formations.
However, despite being an economic and military superpower, China's history is not characterized by consistent territorial conquest. China's historical trajectory as a major power stands in contrast to the Western model of imperialism. Its influence often stemmed from cultural and economic dominance, particularly evident in its extensive trade networks like the Silk Road, which fostered regional commerce without requiring direct territorial control. The Tang and Song dynasties, eras of economic prosperity and cultural flourishing, attracted foreign interaction, enhancing China's status through soft power rather than military might. Even military engagements were often defensive, exemplified by the Great Wall, primarily constructed to protect against invasions, not to fuel expansion. While military campaigns occurred, logistical constraints and the costs of maintaining vast territories often limited their scope. Expansion under the Qing dynasty, into areas like Tibet and Xinjiang, focused more on consolidating existing territories than on aggressive acquisition of new lands.
China's unique approach to power is further exemplified by its tributary system, which allowed it to exert influence over neighboring states without direct conquest. States like Korea, Vietnam, and Japan engaged in tributary relations acknowledging Chinese superiority while maintaining their sovereignty. This fostered economic ties and cultural exchange, reinforcing China's regional leadership without territorial annexation. Furthermore, periods of self-imposed isolation, such as during the Ming dynasty, prioritized internal stability and self-sufficiency, allowing China to cultivate its culture and economy without engaging in the imperialistic expansion common in European history.
In essence, China's historical experience as a superpower is defined by a unique blend of cultural dominance, economic influence through trade, and defensive military strategies, setting it apart from the expansionist patterns of Western powers.
To continue its historical legacy in peaceful coexistence with the other nations around the world, modern China's remarkable ascent presents a unique paradigm in global power dynamics. This approach, a conscious departure from the historical trajectory of many rising powers, emphasizes economic development, international cooperation, and a rejection of hegemonic ambitions. Understanding this strategy is crucial to comprehending not only China's own trajectory but also its implications for the evolving global order.
China’s commitment to peaceful development is not merely a rhetorical flourish but a deeply ingrained strategic principle, rooted in both pragmatic considerations and a distinct cultural ethos.
The pragmatic dimension of this strategy is readily apparent. China's economic miracle hinges on global trade and investment. Aggressive expansionism would inevitably disrupt these crucial economic relationships, jeopardizing the very foundation of its growth. Moreover, China's vast population and interconnected economy render large-scale military conflict incredibly costly and disruptive. A peaceful approach minimizes risks and maximizes opportunities for sustained economic progress. This is not to say that China neglects its military; rather, its military modernization is framed within a defensive posture, focused on protecting national interests, territorial integrity and regional stability rather than projecting power globally.
Beyond pragmatism, China's commitment to peaceful modernization is also rooted in its cultural heritage. While periods of expansion have occurred in Chinese history, the dominant cultural narrative emphasizes harmony, cooperation, and the pursuit of a stable and prosperous society. The concept of "harmony without uniformity" (和而不同, hé ér bù tóng) encapsulates this philosophy, advocating for peaceful coexistence and mutual respect among diverse cultures and nations. This resonates with China's emphasis on multilateralism and its active participation in international organizations, reflecting a desire to shape the global order through cooperation rather than coercion.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a flagship project of China's foreign policy, exemplifies this approach. The BRI aims to foster economic connectivity across Eurasia and beyond through infrastructure development and investment. While critics have raised concerns about its potential geopolitical implications, the initiative's core principle is economic cooperation and mutual benefit, aligning with China's commitment to peaceful development. Similarly, China's advocacy for a global community with a shared destiny for mankind reflects a vision of a multipolar world where nations cooperate to address global challenges such as climate change, poverty, and pandemics.
In conclusion, modern China's approach to peaceful modernization represents a significant departure from traditional models of great power rise. Driven by both pragmatic considerations and a culturally rooted emphasis on harmony and cooperation, this strategy prioritizes economic development, international collaboration, and a rejection of hegemonic ambition. While challenges and complexities remain, China's commitment to peaceful modernization is reshaping the global landscape, offering a distinct alternative to the historical pattern of conflict and expansionism. Its long-term success will significantly influence the future trajectory of the international system.
